Rory McClurg

GVPT200

     The causes of the Iraq War have been a hotly debated topic since the war began. Two scholars, Debs and Montiero of Yale University, have made the most compelling argument about the causes of the Iraq war I have read to date. They break their argument down into three main points, the prevention of a nuclear Iraq, imperfect information, and the post-9/11 world, which, if researched, can be supported by facts about the post 9/11 world.

     Debs and Montiero claim the United State’s main motivation to start the Iraq War was to prevent a nuclear Iraq. This statement makes complete sense when you consider the United States’ interests in the Middle East (i.e. oil, military, etc.) and how important those resources are to our well being. Also, as Debs and Montiero claim, a nuclear Iraq would also sway the balance of power out of the favor of Israel, a key ally of the US. If this scenario were to occur, as the US feared at the time, the power of the US in the Middle East would be drastically weakened. This potential upheaval of the power structure in the Middle East, made a conflict with Iraq inevitable, as it was never our intention to lose influence in this strategic location in the world.

     The desire to prevent a nuclear Iraq would never have materialized if not for two crucial factors according to Debs and Montiero. These factors are, the imperfect info about the Iraqi WMD program and the post 9/11 attitude towards potential threats. Saddam Hussein never was committal on whether he had nuclear weapons, this created an illusion in the minds of the major players in the Middle East and around the world that Iraq may have a weapons program. The UN then sent weapons inspectors in, and came up with no irrefutable evidence there were no weapons of mass destruction in Iraq’s possession. The result of the inspection heightened US fear and suspicion of the Iraqi’s possessing WMD to astronomical levels. The US in years past wouldn’t have been so forceful with their actions, but, considering the post-9/11 hysteria that had engulfed the US, the main priority was to prevent high impact events such as 9/11. This was coined the 1% doctrine. Adding to these facts, the US lost trust in the intelligence community to bring threats to light in a timely manner. So distant possibilities, such as the possibility that Iraq had WMD had to be treated as if they were highly probable events.

     This toxic mix of factors, the desire to prevent a nuclear Iraq, imperfect information about the Iraqi WMD program, and the post-9/11 mindset, all outlined by Debs and Montiero are the most probable factors that contributed to the commencement of the Iraq War.