Jack Murphy

Mr. Shirk

International Relations

24 October 2013

Structure and Conflict in Tomorrow’s Northeast Asia

            While the points that Mearsheimer brings up about China becoming a potential hegemon, because of their large population and rapidly expanding economy, are plausible and threatening, I believe that they will not happen. Also, I do not agree that the United States spot as the top great power will be taken by either Japan or China as Mearsheimer suggests. What I believe is most possible in Mearshemier’s ideas is the first possible scenario that China will not become a hegemon and a multipolar, balanced system will remain in Northeast Asia.

            First of all, I believe that China’s economy will not continue to grow at the rate it has been since the early 1980’s. I believe this because no states economy can continually grow at such a positive rate, meaning that I believe that China will reach a point where they will not be as prosperous. For example, the United States Great Depression. The United States was experiencing a time of great economic prosperity then the markets crashed. While I do not believe China’s crash will be that bad, I believe it will happen. If this does happen and China does not become a hegemon Mearsheimer believes that Japan will become a great power and replace the United States as the worlds top power, but there would still be a multipolar and balanced system in Northeast Asia. Also, Measheimer believes that there would be tension in Northeast Asia because Japan would try to make nuclear weapons with its new power, which would cause China and Russia fear and they would potentially try to stop this. China though has more military power than Japan though just by numbers alone so not much will really happen. This is the situation I believe will happen, except I do not think Japan will overtake the United States. I do not believe this because since Mearsheimer’s book, Great Power Politics in the Twenty-first Century, was written in 2001 the United States GDP has risen from $7.90 trillion (1998) to $15.684 trillion in 2012 and Japans GDP has risen from $4.09 trillion (1998) to $5.959 trillion in 2012, showing that the United States growth is greater (worldbank.org).

            For Mearsheimer’s second idea of what will happen in Northeast Asia that “China emerges as a potential hegemon, Northeast Asia would become unbalanced and the United States would keep forces in the region to contain China” (pg. 400), I disagree with. As I mentioned before I do not believe that China will become a hegemon because I do not think their economic prosperity will last. Also, even if China’s economy does continue to expand exponentially I believe they will have a difficult time becoming powerful because of all the people across different demographics in the Chinese population. Also, all the current territory disputes China has with countries such as India, Japan, Taiwan, Bhutan, and a few other states, would make it hard for China to become a hegemon. Therefore I believe it would be difficult for them to expand their power into other surrounding countries. This being said I do not believe that it would be necessary for the United States to keep its army Northeast Asia to contain China as Mearsheimer suggests.

            While I do believe that Mearsheimer’s first plan is possible, I do not believe that the United States will lose its top spot as a great power to Japan, and I do agree that a multipolar, balanced system will remain. I also do not believe that China will become a hegemon because their economy will not continue to grow and because of the domestic demographic issues they have. 

Work Cited

"GDP (current US$)." Data. The World Bank, n.d. Web. 24 Oct. 2013.

Mearsheimer, John J. The Tragedy of Great Power Politics. New York: Norton, 2001. Print.